War-torn Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the election under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".